Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:32:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf129…8e58 other 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+1%) realized +$31 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate44%32W / 41L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$37
sports 29% −$4
politics 19% −$4
world 11% −$1
economics 4% +$1
tech 2% +$4
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% −$3
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 6 +2.1% -7.6% 33% 17% -9.6%
≤90d 18 +0.3% -9.3% 28% 6% -9.7%
all 73 +2.9% -6.9% 44% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 5% -9.0%
10% -15.8% 1% -17.7%
15% -23.9% 1% -25.6%
20% -31.4% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses32 / 41
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage483d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $68 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $89 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $96 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $175 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $87 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $123 −$3 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $121 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $123 −$2 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 02 $724 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $663 −$5 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 02 $624 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 01 $2 $0 -4%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $93 −$1 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $661 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Mar 30 $134 +$1 +1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 30 $18 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Dec 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $4 $0 +1%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 26 $34 +$1 +4%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting? Jun 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 04 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 74°F or higher on May 17? May 17 $34 $0 +1%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will OG Anunoby Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 9–16? May 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $38 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? May 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or more in April? May 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 09 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 09 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $6 $0 +0%
UEFA Europa League: Tottenham vs. Bodø/Glimt (To Advance) May 08 $30 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $10 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $68 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $88 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $89 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $13 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 100¢ $67 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 100¢ $30 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 99¢ $96 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $45 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $43 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $88 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $88 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $88 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $87 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $9 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $8 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $70 8d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W SELL Yes 56¢ $120 54d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 57¢ $123 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.50 · official $67.50 (match) · 233 history records