Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf12b…a18f world 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%41W / 52L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$5
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$1
other 20% −$9
politics 9% −$1
sports 6% +$25
economics 6% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% +$1
finance 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.0% -8.6% 43% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 28 -1.3% -10.7% 36% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 71 -0.7% -10.2% 37% 1% -9.5%
all 93 +1.3% -8.4% 44% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 4% -9.0%
10% -17.1% 3% -17.7%
15% -25.1% 2% -25.7%
20% -32.5% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses41 / 52
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)93 / 98
History coverage487d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $46 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 61¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 +8%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $82 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $41 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $185 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $48 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $43 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $64 +$4 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $87 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $79 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $85 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $77 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $145 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $109 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 27 $109 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $3 −$1 -25%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $14 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $17 −$3 -15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $92 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $15 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $45 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $41 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $2 $0 -8%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 07 $45 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $46 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $61 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $47 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $94 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $46 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $46 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $46 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $46 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $46 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $42 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $42 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $13 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $4 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $17 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $26 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $20 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $8 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $39 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $42 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $6 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.88 · official $46.75 · 416 history records