Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:36:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F1 0xf12b…40b2 crypto 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$56 (+2%) realized +$56 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR24%break-even

Win rate24%4W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$151per market

Trades / day33.3pace

Kalshi-fit76%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +24%

net ROI/market (all)-18.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-10.1%	-18.7%	24%	24%	-23.6%
≤30d	17	-10.1%	-18.7%	24%	24%	-23.6%
≤90d	17	-10.1%	-18.7%	24%	24%	-23.6%
all	17	-10.1%	-18.7%	24%	24%	-23.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover33.3 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-18.7%	24%	-23.6%
10% ← realistic here	-26.5%	24%	-31.0%
15%	-33.6%	18%	-37.6%
20%	-40.1%	18%	-43.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 74% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +15% → late -33% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$109 vs −$64 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.52 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$56

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)24%

Wins / losses4 / 13

Open positions0

Markets (closed)17 / 17

History coverage1d

Avg bet$151

Trades / day33.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 17 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Jun 22	$491	−$252	-51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Jun 22	$287	−$287	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Jun 22	$553	+$195	+35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Jun 22	$215	+$128	+59%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 22	$9	−$1	-14%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Jun 22	$50	−$6	-13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Jun 22	$50	−$50	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Jun 22	$169	−$123	-73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Jun 22	$199	−$76	-38%
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Jun 22	$76	−$10	-12%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Jun 22	$50	−$10	-20%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Jun 22	$38	−$3	-7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?	Jun 22	$29	−$7	-23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Jun 22	$39	+$60	+153%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Jun 22	$50	−$11	-21%
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Jun 22	$155	−$3	-2%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	Jun 22	$100	+$55	+55%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$111	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$126	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	SELL Down	74¢	$239	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	BUY Down	75¢	$252	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$41	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	15¢	$246	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	SELL Down	35¢	$354	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$209	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	SELL Up	53¢	$394	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$344	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	SELL Down	60¢	$343	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$215	2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$7	2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	SELL Yes	15¢	$44	2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	SELL Yes	19¢	$67	2h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	SELL Yes	15¢	$40	2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	SELL Yes	31¢	$35	2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	31¢	$22	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$100	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$9	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$38	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	SELL Down	4¢	$46	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$122	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	SELL Up	57¢	$123	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$99	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	SELL Down	45¢	$99	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	BUY Down	16¢	$39	2h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	SELL Yes	6¢	$39	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Down	14¢	$50	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records