Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:32:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf12d…0fdd sports 164 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,067 (-9%) realized −$2,050 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%57W / 106L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$345est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days−$3,203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$474
other 41% −$3,006
world 0% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -23.1% -30.4% 33% 33% -1.0%
≤30d 123 -5.3% -14.3% 35% 31% -25.8%
≤90d 163 -7.2% -16.1% 35% 32% -19.1%
all 163 -7.2% -16.1% 35% 32% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 32% -19.1%
10% -24.1% 30% -26.8%
15% -31.4% 29% -33.9%
20% -38.2% 24% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$77 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$2,050
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses57 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$345
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 164
History coverage74d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 26¢ $40 $23 −$17 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $181 −$10 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $163 +$59 +36%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Guam win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $375 −$370 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 01 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $51 +$47 +92%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 01 $51 −$3 -7%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $51 $0 +1%
Slovakia vs. Malta: Draw at halftime? Jun 01 $51 +$54 +106%
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: Draw at halftime? Jun 01 $51 +$24 +47%
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $133 +$49 +37%
Exact Score: Cruzeiro EC 0 - 1 Fluminense FC? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $122 −$22 -18%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $25 −$1 -4%
São Paulo FC leading at halftime? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -97%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $101 +$37 +37%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: Draw at halftime? Jun 01 $77 +$52 +67%
Will CS Cienciano vs. CS Cristal end in a draw? May 31 $4 −$1 -15%
CS Cienciano vs. CS Cristal: O/U 4.5 May 31 $469 −$84 -18%
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? May 31 $51 −$50 -97%
CD Los Chankas vs. CU Técnica de Cajamarca: Both Teams to Score May 31 $9 +$10 +112%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Córdoba CF vs. SD Huesca end in a draw? May 31 $51 +$94 +184%
Córdoba CF vs. SD Huesca: Both Teams to Score May 31 $51 −$11 -22%
Will CD Leganés vs. CD Mirandés end in a draw? May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: Both Teams to Score May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $293 +$288 +98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $112 +$177 +157%
Club Bolívar vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 2.5 May 28 $197 −$194 -98%
CA Mineiro vs. Academia Puerto Cabello: O/U 1.5 May 27 $184 +$13 +7%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $30 +$20 +66%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $94 +$101 +108%
Crystal Palace FC leading at halftime? May 27 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Club Universitario de Deportes leading at halftime? May 27 $140 −$137 -98%
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro leading at halftime? May 27 $305 −$300 -98%
Independiente Medellín leading at halftime? May 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $508 +$6 +1%
Spread: O'Higgins FC (-1.5) May 26 $51 +$91 +178%
Millonarios FC vs. O'Higgins FC: Draw at halftime? May 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will CD Cuenca win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $51 −$9 -18%
Millonarios FC vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 2.5 May 26 $511 −$76 -15%
CD Palestino leading at halftime? May 26 $153 −$150 -98%
Grêmio FBPA vs. Montevideo City Torque: Draw at halftime? May 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $1,077 −$228 -21%
Saint-Etienne leading at halftime? May 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 74¢ $172 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 77¢ $181 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $222 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $163 6h
Will Guam win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes $3 17d
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 55¢ $375 17d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Madagascar 21¢ $51 17d
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 18d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes $5 18d
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 18d
Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 92¢ $98 18d
Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 18d
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 42¢ $47 18d
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $51 18d
Slovakia vs. Malta: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 72¢ $105 18d
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 72¢ $75 18d
Slovakia vs. Malta: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 18d
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 18d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 18d
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 18d
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 87¢ $81 19d
Exact Score: Cruzeiro EC 0 - 1 Fluminense FC? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 19d
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 19d
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to Score SELL No 35¢ $25 19d
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 19d
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 35¢ $25 19d
São Paulo FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 19d
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $138 19d
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 77¢ $129 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.55 · official $22.55 (match) · 274 history records