Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:19:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf12f…dd89 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 500d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%38W / 10L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$2
other 20% $0
politics 9% $0
tech 9% +$1
sports 3% $0
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 48 +0.2% -9.3% 79% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.69 per $1 lost it wins $4.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

500d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses38 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage500d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $54 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in March? Apr 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? Apr 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in February? Mar 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? Jan 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $240 in November? Dec 03 $70 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 03 $35 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Sep 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 01 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 04 $68 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jul 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 18 $74 $0 -0%
Will Jaxson Dart be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Apr 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will Cale Makar win the Hart Trophy? Apr 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Yuki Tsunoda be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Apr 02 $14 $0 +3%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Mar 25 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Mar 23 $56 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $45 +$1 +1%
Will Real Sociedad win La Liga? Feb 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Feb 16 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $80 2h
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $54 30d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $35 61d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 90d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in March? BUY No 100¢ $19 92d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $52 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $23 120d
Will BNB reach $900 in February? BUY No 100¢ $36 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 148d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $55 149d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $15 181d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? BUY No 100¢ $55 182d
Will Solana reach $240 in November? BUY No 100¢ $9 211d
Will Solana reach $240 in November? BUY No 100¢ $60 212d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 241d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? BUY No 99¢ $35 242d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $7 271d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $23 272d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $41 272d
Will Solana reach $290 in August? BUY No 100¢ $19 300d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $49 301d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $25 333d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $42 334d
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 362d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 365d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 392d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.13 · official $80.13 (match) · 106 history records