Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf12f…b30f sports 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,706 (+11%) realized +$7,644 · open +$1,062
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%63W / 80L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$561per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$1,352est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,562now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,665
7 days+$5,203
14 days+$7,011
30 days+$6,683
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$7,865
other 2% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +10.2% -0.3% 47% 47% +2.9%
≤30d 143 +1.3% -8.3% 44% 44% -1.9%
≤90d 143 +1.3% -8.3% 44% 44% -1.9%
all 143 +1.3% -8.3% 44% 44% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 44% -1.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 44% -11.3%
15% -25.1% 44% -19.8%
20% -32.5% 44% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$700) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$728 vs −$490 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$1,562
Realized+$7,644
Unrealized+$1,062
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses63 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,352
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage21d
Avg bet$561
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Carlos Sanchez Jover 32¢ 100¢ $500 $1,562 +$1,062 (+212%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $358 −$350 -98%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $916 −$900 -98%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $292 −$285 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $609 +$641 +105%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $408 −$400 -98%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 16 $560 +$750 +134%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $560 +$815 +146%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $1,016 +$1,160 +114%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $1,065 +$1,114 +105%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $511 +$1,418 +277%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $384 −$375 -98%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $659 +$550 +84%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $458 −$450 -98%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $901 −$889 -99%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $1,267 +$1,177 +93%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $559 −$550 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,116 −$1,100 -98%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $612 −$600 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $811 +$689 +85%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $457 −$450 -98%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $610 +$732 +120%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $22 +$43 +197%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $813 +$926 +114%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $613 −$600 -98%
Joventut vs. Valencia: O/U 177.5 Jun 14 $711 −$700 -98%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $1,014 +$838 +83%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $712 +$916 +129%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $1,019 +$1,734 +170%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $611 −$600 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $255 −$250 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,522 −$1,500 -99%
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Carolina Alves Jun 13 $307 −$300 -98%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $967 −$950 -98%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $205 −$200 -97%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $761 −$750 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 13 $357 −$350 -98%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $358 +$1,233 +344%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 13 $913 +$825 +90%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 13 $712 −$700 -98%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $458 −$450 -98%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $559 +$631 +113%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $582 +$1,200 +206%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $813 +$890 +110%
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 12 $408 −$400 -98%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $1,107 −$1,090 -98%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $912 +$754 +83%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $408 +$769 +188%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 12 $457 −$450 -98%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $764 −$300 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 20¢ $358 1h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 32¢ $510 2h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Oliver Crawford 42¢ $916 3h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 21¢ $205 5h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 16¢ $87 5h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 36¢ $408 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $609 16h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Reyer Venezia 42¢ $560 19h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $560 19h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 98¢ $2,177 19h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 45¢ $1,016 20h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Oliver Crawford 25¢ $153 22h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Oliver Crawford 57¢ $912 23h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Lorenzo Giustino 23¢ $384 25h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 39¢ $458 26h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 26¢ $511 27h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 31¢ $91 29h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 54¢ $659 29h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 58¢ $810 29h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $559 39h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 35¢ $255 40h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 58¢ $1,013 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,116 43h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Coleman Wong 31¢ $612 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $305 44h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio BUY Raul Brancaccio 45¢ $457 47h
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 53¢ $811 2d
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 33¢ $22 2d
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 45¢ $610 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $813 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,561.72 · official $1,561.72 (match) · 234 history records