Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf130…7819 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-17%) realized −$68 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -94% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -94% what you keep after slip
Net edge-94%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$36
sports 5% −$20
finance 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-94.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -93.6% -94.3% 0% 0% -93.7%
≤30d 4 -93.6% -94.3% 0% 0% -93.7%
≤90d 4 -93.6% -94.3% 0% 0% -93.7%
all 4 -93.6% -94.3% 0% 0% -93.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -94.3% 0% -93.7%
10% -94.8% 0% -94.3%
15% -95.3% 0% -94.8%
20% -95.8% 0% -95.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -94% · $-wt -93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$17 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$314
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage7d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $131 $146 +$15 (+11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $96 $92 −$4 (-4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-31%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $32 −$28 -89%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -91%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.78 · official $313.87 (match) · 21 history records