Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf130…15ea world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$3
politics 15% −$11
sports 8% +$11
other 7% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.6% -9.0% 17% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 23% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 23% 0% -9.1%
all 26 +0.9% -8.7% 42% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 4% -9.1%
10% -17.4% 4% -17.8%
15% -25.4% 4% -25.8%
20% -32.7% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage487d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 83¢ 84¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $89 +$3 +4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $42 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $21 −$3 -12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $44 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 22 $13 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $13 +$1 +9%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $2 $0 +8%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 20 $1 $0 +5%
Will Trump say 'DOGE' or 'Department of Government Efficiency' during Mar 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Sharks vs. Sabres Mar 04 $11 $0 -1%
Will Bernie Sanders applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $21 $0 -1%
Will Trump say 'Greenland' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will PSV Eindhoven vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Mar 04 $22 $0 +0%
Louisiana vs. Troy Mar 04 $11 +$11 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $41 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $31 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $29 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $45 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $45 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $11 21h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $17 21h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $14 22h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $15 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $32 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $41 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $41 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 94¢ $41 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $42 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.16 · official $41.16 (match) · 77 history records