Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf133…fea4 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$122 (-16%) realized −$122 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$173
14 days−$137
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$3
sports 19% −$110
world 4% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -28.5% -35.3% 38% 38% -33.2%
≤30d 25 -20.4% -28.0% 40% 40% -27.7%
≤90d 25 -20.4% -28.0% 40% 40% -27.7%
all 25 -20.4% -28.0% 40% 40% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 40% -27.7%
10% -34.8% 36% -34.7%
15% -41.1% 36% -41.0%
20% -46.9% 24% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$24 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage7d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +56%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 18 $15 −$2 -13%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$16 -77%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$41 +133%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$22 +72%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$11 +37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +22%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$23 +91%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$2 -9%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 +$14 +47%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 +$33 +107%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$36 +175%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $31 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $31 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $20 29h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 21¢ $13 29h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 23¢ $15 30h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $31 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $31 30h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 11¢ $5 34h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $20 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $31 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $31 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $31 5d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 92¢ $45 5d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.65 · official $84.65 (match) · 54 history records