Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:55:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf135…3824 other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 719d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$252 (+1%) realized +$269 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate64%41W / 23L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$394per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$117
14 days+$195
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$167
world 5% +$9
tech 3% −$16
crypto 3% +$17
culture 1% +$5
sports 0% +$56
politics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 34 -43.5% -48.8% 56% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 36 -41.0% -46.6% 58% 0% -8.8%
all 64 -7.8% -16.6% 64% 17% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 17% -8.6%
10% -24.6% 17% -17.4%
15% -31.8% 17% -25.4%
20% -38.5% 14% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$683) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.43 per $1 lost it wins $3.43
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

719d coverage
Net worth$1,175
Realized+$269
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses41 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage719d
Avg bet$394
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ goals No 99¢ 97¢ $1,188 $1,169 −$19 (-2%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toni Fruk: 3+ goals Jun 24 $1,188 +$12 +1%
Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goals Jun 23 $1,188 +$12 +1%
Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists Jun 23 $1,188 +$12 +1%
Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assists Jun 22 $1,189 +$12 +1%
Mikel Merino: 3+ goals Jun 21 $1,189 +$12 +1%
Nilson Angulo: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $1,189 +$12 +1%
Tijjani Reijnders: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $1,189 +$12 +1%
Ross Stewart: 3+ goals Jun 20 $1,190 +$12 +1%
Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists Jun 19 $1,190 +$12 +1%
Patrik Schick: 3+ goals Jun 18 $1,190 +$12 +1%
Meme: 3+ goals Jun 17 $3,447 +$34 +1%
Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals Jun 16 $3,448 +$37 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Nigeria? Jun 10 $704 +$8 +1%
Exact Score: Cambodia 3 - 3 Hong Kong SAR? Jun 09 $704 +$8 +1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 08 $683 +$17 +2%
Exact Score: Kosovo 0 - 3 Andorra? Jun 08 $643 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 07 $6 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 07 $686 +$14 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 17? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Meta (META) close above $640 on February 25? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bob Good win the VA-5 Republican House Primary? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $5.00-$6.00 on the final day of trading Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $205 on March 2? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $215 on February 11? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on March 4? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will turnout in the 2026 Danish general elections be below 80%? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$4,750 in March? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 on February 18? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Meta (META) close above $690 on February 9? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on March 10? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Paddy Pimblett Staph Infection by Feb. 1st? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Reform win 7+ seats in UK Election? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Georgia 0 - 3 Bahrain? Jun 06 $643 +$7 +1%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 45 on the Rotten To Apr 06 $190 $0 +0%
Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be less than 800k? Mar 30 $200 +$4 +2%
No change in Swiss National Bank policy rate after March Meeting? Mar 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on March 13? Mar 17 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Smash Into Pieces win Melodifestivalen 2026? Mar 10 $150 +$5 +3%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on March 3? Mar 04 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 16 above $250? Feb 25 $200 +$1 +1%
Will GALBOT have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala? Feb 18 $160 +$4 +2%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $275 on February 11? Feb 13 $150 +$3 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on February 10? Feb 11 $150 +$2 +1%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Cleveland Cavaliers? Feb 06 $200 +$3 +1%
Rockets vs. Pistons Feb 01 $7 +$10 +150%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Jan 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Jan 16 $3 +$8 +257%
Flyers vs. Oilers Jan 10 $6 +$9 +150%
Magic vs. Pacers Dec 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,188 1h
Toni Fruk: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,188 11h
Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,188 25h
Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,188 46h
Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,189 2d
Mikel Merino: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,189 3d
Nilson Angulo: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,189 3d
Tijjani Reijnders: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,189 4d
Ross Stewart: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,190 4d
Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,190 5d
Patrik Schick: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,190 5d
Meme: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $3,447 7d
Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $3,448 7d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Nigeria? BUY No 99¢ $704 14d
Exact Score: Cambodia 3 - 3 Hong Kong SAR? BUY No 99¢ $704 15d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Uzbekistan? BUY No 98¢ $683 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 17d
Exact Score: Kosovo 0 - 3 Andorra? BUY No 99¢ $643 17d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 98¢ $686 18d
Exact Score: Georgia 0 - 3 Bahrain? BUY No 99¢ $643 18d
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 78d
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 45 on the Rotten To SELL No 100¢ $190 78d
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 45 on the Rotten To BUY No 100¢ $190 79d
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$4,750 in March? BUY No $10 85d
Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be less than 800k? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 89d
Will turnout in the 2026 Danish general elections be below 80%? BUY Yes $7 92d
No change in Swiss National Bank policy rate after March Meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 97d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 17? BUY Yes $5 98d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on March 13? BUY No 99¢ $110 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,175.05 · official $1,174.69 (match) · 123 history records