Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf138…60a4 crypto 633 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$88 (-6%) realized −$7 · open −$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%299W / 328L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$35
finance 20% −$125
other 11% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -6.4% -15.3% 35% 20% -24.0%
≤30d 80 -25.9% -32.9% 35% 25% -37.1%
≤90d 627 -4.3% -13.5% 48% 39% -12.7%
all 627 -4.3% -13.5% 48% 39% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 39% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 32% -21.1%
15% -29.3% 27% -28.7%
20% -36.2% 22% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$390
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses299 / 328
Open positions6
Markets (closed)627 / 633
History coverage72d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 627 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 19¢ 25¢ $155 $198 +$43 (+28%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $101 $83 −$18 (-18%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $100 $56 −$43 (-43%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $50 $22 −$28 (-56%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $50 $16 −$34 (-68%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$4 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +340%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +395%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$2 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 16m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $22 28m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 25¢ $37 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $52 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 24h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 24h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 24h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 3d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $44 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $35 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 6¢ $1 3d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $47 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $389.52 · official $389.60 (match) · 1792 history records