Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F1 0xf139…1d3b sports 233 markets active 14h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23,266 (+12%) realized +$22,865 · open +$401
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%126W / 96L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$827per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$741est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$9,178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$1,822
14 days+$1,095
30 days+$1,420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$17,203
other 26% +$5,819
politics 0% +$303
crypto 0% −$31
world 0% −$236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +8.1% -2.2% 55% 55% +6.6%
≤30d 18 +68.1% +52.1% 61% 61% +1.9%
≤90d 84 +3.7% -6.2% 61% 58% +0.6%
all 222 -3.3% -12.5% 57% 56% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 56% +2.7%
10% -20.9% 46% -7.1%
15% -28.6% 33% -16.1%
20% -35.6% 26% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$382 vs −$269 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$9,178
Realized+$22,865
Unrealized+$401
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses126 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$741
Open positions4
Markets (closed)222 / 233
History coverage246d
Avg bet$827
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $6,521 $6,232 −$288 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $1,392 $1,930 +$539 (+39%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $800 $962 +$162 (+20%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 52¢ $64 $52 −$12 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 25 $102 +$190 +186%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $122 −$120 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Aust Jun 23 $101 +$67 +67%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4,904 +$2,141 +44%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$10 +20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $422 −$125 -30%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,062 −$786 -38%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $183 +$217 +119%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $204 −$201 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,086 +$444 +21%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16 Jun 17 $204 +$402 +197%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,579 −$1,570 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,017 −$2,920 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,523 +$1,377 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,528 +$1,672 +109%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $988 +$312 +32%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $525 +$326 +62%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 23 $592 −$592 -100%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 19 $71 +$29 +41%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 18 $93 −$93 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $50 −$36 -73%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $183 +$20 +11%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 17 $197 +$103 +52%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $203 −$106 -52%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $383 +$91 +24%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 11 $383 −$6 -2%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 11 $157 +$43 +27%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 02 $2,570 −$2,570 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $948 −$578 -61%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 30 $114 −$114 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) Apr 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $830 +$170 +20%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $7,280 +$1,698 +23%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $5,255 +$2,044 +39%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $690 −$681 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 24 $154 +$46 +30%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 24 $3,003 +$297 +10%
Kings vs. Avalanche Apr 22 $8,106 +$3,282 +40%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 21 $6,319 −$6,298 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5 Apr 21 $100 −$98 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $2,550 −$2,550 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $4,978 +$954 +19%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 Apr 20 $100 −$99 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 20 $171 −$127 -74%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 20 $8,010 +$988 +12%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5 Apr 19 $110 +$87 +79%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Liudmila Samsonova vs Coco Gauff Apr 16 $4,242 +$832 +20%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 16 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 16 $16 −$16 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? A BUY 41¢ $102 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 43¢ $122 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 34¢ $102 24h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY 17¢ $21 24h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 65¢ $101 46h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: BUY 20¢ $51 46h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Aust BUY 59¢ $101 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Alge BUY 16¢ $51 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,404 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $143 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,036 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $86 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $104 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,420 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,177.99 · official $9,277.99 · 1358 history records