Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:16:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf13a…105b other 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 106L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$26
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$9
other 26% −$31
sports 16% −$9
crypto 10% −$9
world 7% −$4
culture 6% −$3
economics 4% −$4
finance 3% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.7% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 64 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 108 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 121 -0.6% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage101d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 19 $44 $0 -1%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $110 −$2 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $93 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $115 −$3 -2%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 15 $19 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $913 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 14 $56 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $366 −$2 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $60 −$1 -2%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $294 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $170 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $111 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 12 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 12 $56 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 11 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $66 $0 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $354 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $180 −$2 -1%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $44 −$1 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 07 $58 −$1 -2%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 06 $48 −$1 -2%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $316 $0 +0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $58 −$3 -5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $87 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $112 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $62 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $229 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $662 −$3 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $52 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $152 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $18 38m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $43 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $44 5h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $42 6h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $43 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $42 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 20h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $57 21h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $53 25h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 25h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 98¢ $9 26h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 98¢ $9 34h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 35h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 43h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $45 43h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 90¢ $40 2d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $13 2d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $22 2d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $6 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $67 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $68 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $39 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $39 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $62 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $62 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 98¢ $51 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.79 · official $17.79 (match) · 488 history records