Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf13f…343f sports 538 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$262 (+1%) realized +$262 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate81%437W / 100L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$208est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$45
14 days−$88
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$105
crypto 3% −$57
other 2% +$23
weather 0% −$5
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -15.9% -23.9% 70% 26% -13.1%
≤30d 339 -8.0% -16.7% 79% 25% -10.9%
≤90d 537 -3.6% -12.8% 81% 31% -9.3%
all 537 -3.6% -12.8% 81% 31% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 31% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 13% -18.0%
15% -28.7% 7% -25.9%
20% -35.7% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$43 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$262
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses437 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$208
Open positions0
Markets (closed)537 / 538
History coverage58d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 537 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $54 +$3 +6%
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz Jun 20 $53 +$1 +2%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $14 $0 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 $0 +24%
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu Jun 19 $14 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $2 −$1 -86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $13 +$1 +5%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 +30%
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Christian Langmo Jun 19 $1 $0 +7%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $16 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $8 −$2 -24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 19 $14 +$1 +5%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $13 +$1 +7%
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Ipek Oz Jun 19 $2 −$2 -99%
ITF San Gregorio: Marta Lombardini vs Sofia Rocchetti Jun 19 $14 +$1 +5%
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Adrienn Nagy Jun 19 $12 +$2 +13%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Yufei Ren Jun 19 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $11 −$6 -58%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $7 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $2 +$1 +40%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $9 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $6 +$3 +43%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Amandine Hesse Jun 18 $4 +$1 +17%
ITF Bolszewo: Julie Pastikova vs Barbara Kostecka Jun 18 $13 −$10 -71%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $13 $0 +2%
ITF Tauste: Ru Xi Wu vs Yasmine Mansouri Jun 17 $12 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division Jun 17 $11 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 $0 +35%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -91%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $12 +$1 +7%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $17 −$5 -28%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $16 +$1 +6%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $3 $0 +8%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $14 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 $0 +48%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 +$1 +21%
ITF Klosters: Jenny Duerst vs Elsa Bonelli Jun 17 $6 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo SELL TDK 100¢ $57 26m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 96¢ $50 40m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 77¢ $4 47m
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz SELL Martha Matoula 99¢ $54 1h
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz BUY Martha Matoula 98¢ $50 1h
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz BUY Martha Matoula 82¢ $3 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $14 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $14 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 12h
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu SELL Ru Xi Wu 100¢ $16 12h
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu BUY Ru Xi Wu 95¢ $13 13h
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu BUY Ru Xi Wu 62¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff SELL K27 10¢ $0 13h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 71¢ $2 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 14h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1 14h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1 14h
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Christian Langmo SELL Jeffrey John Wolf 100¢ $1 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $12 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 15h
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Christian Langmo BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 92¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 61¢ $4 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 91¢ $7 17h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $17 17h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 97¢ $10 17h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 85¢ $6 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 85¢ $6 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 75¢ $4 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 75¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1408 history records