Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F1 0xf142…03cb sports 387 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,269 (-9%) realized −$2,212 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%163W / 218L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$168est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$444now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days−$65
14 days−$30
30 days−$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$2,343
other 3% −$37
crypto 1% +$49
tech 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +10.9% +0.4% 50% 50% -10.6%
≤30d 117 -5.5% -14.5% 44% 44% -12.3%
≤90d 227 -13.8% -22.0% 41% 41% -19.3%
all 381 -13.2% -21.5% 43% 43% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 43% -17.6%
10% -29.0% 41% -25.5%
15% -35.9% 39% -32.7%
20% -42.2% 33% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$57 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$444
Realized−$2,212
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses163 / 218
Est. fees paid−$168
Open positions6
Markets (closed)381 / 387
History coverage132d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 381 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $187 $171 −$16 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $59 $61 +$2 (+3%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Team Liquid 39¢ 38¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-3%)
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Deep Cross Gaming 66¢ 56¢ $60 $51 −$9 (-15%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 38¢ $40 $31 −$9 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 210 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$30 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$35 +114%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $39 +$22 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $32 +$33 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $39 +$25 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$17 +165%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $39 +$30 +76%
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 16 $122 −$51 -42%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$66 +216%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $126 −$124 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $157 −$155 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $102 +$116 +114%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $192 −$190 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $159 +$131 +83%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $36 −$35 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $46 +$50 +109%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $60 −$59 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $86 +$49 +57%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $122 −$120 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $42 −$41 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $73 −$72 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $51 +$116 +226%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $303 +$125 +41%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $99 +$104 +105%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 +$13 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $122 −$121 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $68 −$67 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $45 +$12 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 +$71 +140%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $78 +$65 +84%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$19 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $130 +$47 +36%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $161 +$78 +48%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$89 +509%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $51 +$51 +101%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $60 +$91 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $16 3h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 22¢ $14 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 14h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $31 14h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $39 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $32 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $65 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $39 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $69 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $39 32h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Deep Cross Gaming 66¢ $61 2d
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY Team Liquid 39¢ $56 2d
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? SELL Yes 15¢ $71 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $12 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $97 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $126 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $61 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $96 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $192 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $36 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $444.22 · official $444.22 (match) · 619 history records