Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F1 0xf142…2f8a other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$530 (-6%) realized −$531 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip

Net edge-43%after slip

Net WR11%break-even

Win rate17%3W / 15L

Whale WR20%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$474per market

Trades / day33.2pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$18

7 days−$399

14 days−$879

30 days−$879

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +11%

net ROI/market (all)-32.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	-28.3%	-35.2%	21%	14%	-15.4%
≤30d	18	-25.8%	-32.9%	17%	11%	-18.4%
≤90d	18	-25.8%	-32.9%	17%	11%	-18.4%
all	18	-25.8%	-32.9%	17%	11%	-18.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover33.2 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-32.9%	11%	-18.4%
10% ← realistic here	-39.3%	0%	-26.2%
15%	-45.2%	0%	-33.4%
20%	-50.5%	0%	-39.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 89% · top 2 98% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -26% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 20% (≥$1,056) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -31% → late -21% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

11.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$78 vs −$74 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.21 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$76

Realized−$531

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses3 / 15

Whale WR (big bets)20%

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage10d

Avg bet$474

Trades / day33.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	No	50¢	50¢	$76	$76	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	Jun 16	$64	−$5	-8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	Jun 15	$93	−$16	-17%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 15	$51	+$5	+10%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	Jun 15	$14	−$2	-16%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	Jun 13	$118	−$78	-66%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	Jun 13	$187	+$21	+12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 12	$1,411	+$207	+15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 11	$17	−$10	-58%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 11	$143	−$35	-25%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?	Jun 10	$1,539	−$80	-5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?	Jun 10	$294	−$82	-28%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?	Jun 10	$7	−$6	-85%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 09	$1,820	−$312	-17%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 09	$241	−$7	-3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 09	$2	$0	-15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?	Jun 08	$1,791	−$330	-18%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?	Jun 07	$1,056	−$134	-13%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?	Jun 07	$74	−$16	-21%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	BUY No	50¢	$26	1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	BUY No	50¢	$51	1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	SELL No	53¢	$59	2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	BUY No	55¢	$64	13h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	SELL No	1¢	$2	20h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	SELL No	71¢	$36	20h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	SELL No	62¢	$4	20h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	SELL No	63¢	$3	20h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	BUY No	48¢	$49	21h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	SELL No	47¢	$5	26h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	SELL No	38¢	$18	27h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	SELL No	38¢	$0	27h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	SELL No	38¢	$4	27h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	SELL No	38¢	$8	27h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	SELL Yes	51¢	$57	27h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	BUY No	22¢	$45	31h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	SELL Yes	20¢	$12	32h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	44¢	$8	37h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	44¢	$43	37h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	BUY Yes	22¢	$14	2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1	2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$0	2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$0	2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1	2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$4	2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$0	2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$50	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.25 · official $76.25 (match) · 336 history records