Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:59:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F1 0xf143…4ef2 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-3%) realized −$80 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$2,350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$98
world 23% $0
tech 15% +$18
crypto 11% −$2
politics 11% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -17.5% -25.4% 50% 0% -31.5%
≤30d 2 -17.5% -25.4% 50% 0% -31.5%
≤90d 2 -17.5% -25.4% 50% 0% -31.5%
all 2 -17.5% -25.4% 50% 0% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 0% -31.5%
10% -32.5% 0% -38.1%
15% -39.0% 0% -44.0%
20% -45.0% 0% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$91 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,350
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)2 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No 64¢ 68¢ $250 $269 +$19 (+7%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 68¢ 68¢ $250 $250 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $250 $244 −$6 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $227 $225 −$2 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $224 $219 −$5 (-2%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No 84¢ 84¢ $168 $167 −$1 (-1%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $166 $165 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 69¢ $121 $118 −$3 (-2%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $106 $105 −$1 (-1%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 87¢ 87¢ $81 $81 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 73¢ $79 $78 −$1 (-1%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $74 $75 +$1 (+1%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 77¢ 78¢ $59 $61 +$2 (+3%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 66¢ $41 $41 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 24 $117 +$1 +1%
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Jun 23 $256 −$91 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? BUY No 77¢ $59 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $80 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? SELL Yes 67¢ $118 1h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $41 10h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $81 10h
Weed rescheduled by December 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $135 10h
Weed rescheduled by December 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $30 13h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 80¢ $75 15h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $253 15h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $253 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $117 15h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $122 15h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $106 15h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY No 84¢ $170 15h
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $166 15h
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? BUY No 64¢ $254 15h
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $227 15h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY No 68¢ $250 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $231 15h
Weed rescheduled by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $256 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,350.40 · official $2,350.41 (match) · 21 history records