Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F1 0xf143…9f6b other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 221d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-13%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$18
sports 11% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +53.6% +39.0% 100% 50% +1.6%
≤30d 3 +33.8% +21.1% 67% 33% +1.5%
≤90d 3 +33.8% +21.1% 67% 33% +1.5%
all 4 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 25% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 25% -10.3%
10% -17.9% 25% -18.9%
15% -25.8% 25% -26.7%
20% -33.1% 25% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage221d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 54¢ 54¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $137 +$3 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $1 $0 -6%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $19 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $15 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $140 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $137 41h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 21¢ $1 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 22¢ $1 11d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 16¢ $10 221d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 51¢ $10 221d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.23 · official $18.23 (match) · 9 history records