Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:01:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F1 0xf144…0562 crypto 724 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$320 (-3%) realized −$319 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%367W / 356L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$42
14 days+$53
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$510
sports 15% −$88
other 3% −$78
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -8.4% -17.2% 44% 40% +2.3%
≤30d 146 -13.1% -21.4% 47% 45% -17.8%
≤90d 319 -12.2% -20.5% 49% 44% -22.3%
all 723 -13.4% -21.6% 51% 43% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 43% -16.6%
10% -29.1% 32% -24.6%
15% -36.0% 23% -31.8%
20% -42.3% 15% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$319
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses367 / 356
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)723 / 724
History coverage128d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 723 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 284 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $36 +$43 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 −$20 -49%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 +$14 +49%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $63 −$14 -22%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $18 +$19 +104%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$8 +158%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $17 +$19 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +118%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $19 −$2 -9%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $10 $0 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $31 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 07 $6 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $17 13m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $79 23m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $21 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 26h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 27h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 46h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 5¢ $1 46h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 20¢ $5 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 95¢ $43 47h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $50 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $37 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $13 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $28 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $36 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $17 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.68 · official $15.68 (match) · 2416 history records