Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:33:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf146…d3ff sports 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$509 (+9%) realized +$653 · open −$144
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$151est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$359
other 2% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +5.3% -4.7% 62% 52% +1.7%
≤30d 29 +5.3% -4.7% 62% 52% +1.7%
≤90d 29 +5.3% -4.7% 62% 52% +1.7%
all 29 +5.3% -4.7% 62% 52% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 52% +1.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 45% -8.1%
15% -22.2% 38% -16.9%
20% -29.8% 28% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$86 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$653
Unrealized−$144
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Est. fees paid−$151
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage3d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Sebastian Ofner 53¢ 56¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Dalibor Svrcina 39¢ $151 $0 −$151 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $102 +$80 +79%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $152 +$66 +43%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $226 +$125 +55%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $286 −$110 -38%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $357 −$137 -38%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $139 +$35 +25%
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 17 $489 −$200 -41%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $217 +$243 +112%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $152 +$14 +9%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $142 +$83 +59%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $152 +$170 +112%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $204 +$22 +11%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $197 +$43 +22%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $204 +$20 +10%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $141 +$36 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $94 +$47 +50%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $405 −$11 -3%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $50 +$55 +110%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $17 +$33 +193%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $41 −$24 -58%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $328 +$146 +44%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $651 −$130 -20%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $407 +$279 +69%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $269 −$125 -46%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $140 −$138 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 53¢ $101 3m
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide BUY Dalibor Svrcina $1 17m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 77¢ $182 19m
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide BUY Dalibor Svrcina 42¢ $153 51m
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen SELL Otto Virtanen 83¢ $218 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 42¢ $102 1h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 57¢ $152 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 99¢ $156 3h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 57¢ $91 3h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 55¢ $194 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 37¢ $135 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 38¢ $20 14h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 99¢ $21 14h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 94¢ $20 14h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 64¢ $152 15h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 69¢ $171 15h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $135 16h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 44¢ $25 29h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 21¢ $51 36h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 35¢ $153 36h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 44¢ $209 36h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 31¢ $153 37h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 97¢ $173 37h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 77¢ $139 38h
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Jacopo Vasami 33¢ $30 2d
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva SELL Joao Lucas Da Silva 80¢ $5 2d
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Martin Krumich 20¢ $205 2d
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva SELL Joao Lucas Da Silva 71¢ $147 2d
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 65¢ $141 2d
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva SELL Joao Lucas Da Silva 69¢ $223 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.78 · official $106.80 (match) · 92 history records