Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf148…97e5 crypto 265 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$70 (+2%) realized +$76 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate67%168W / 82L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$2
other 2% −$8
politics 0% $0
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 245 +1.4% -8.3% 68% 22% -9.3%
≤30d 245 +1.4% -8.3% 68% 22% -9.3%
≤90d 250 +1.6% -8.0% 67% 22% -9.4%
all 250 +1.6% -8.0% 67% 22% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 22% -9.4%
10% -16.8% 10% -18.1%
15% -24.9% 7% -26.0%
20% -32.2% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$76
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses168 / 82
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)250 / 265
History coverage75d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 34¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 40¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $35 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $61 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $14 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $28 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $28 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $32 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $45 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $23 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $23 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $35 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $43 −$19 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $22 +$18 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $43 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $26 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.23 · official $60.23 (match) · 1134 history records