Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:14:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf14a…16e9 other 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$12
politics 32% −$9
crypto 8% −$2
sports 4% −$15
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 -0.8% -10.2% 7% 3% -9.7%
all 115 -2.2% -11.5% 10% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 3% -9.7%
10% -20.0% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×6.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 104
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage116d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 31 $154 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 24 $198 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $357 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $743 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $350 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $186 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $164 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $218 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $182 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $185 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $193 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $374 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $206 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $330 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $198 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $173 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $168 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $385 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $215 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $197 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $155 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $376 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 22 $182 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $180 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $210 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $215 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $396 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $179 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $182 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $178 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $197 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 18 $208 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $416 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $150 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 17 $205 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $211 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $313 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $209 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 14 $192 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $166 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $194 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $168 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 6h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $154 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $154 26d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $198 28d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $198 35d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $182 35d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $182 37d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $161 45d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $145 45d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $145 45d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $186 46d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $186 47d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $197 48d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $197 48d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $164 48d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $164 49d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $154 49d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $154 50d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $218 50d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $218 50d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $204 50d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $204 51d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $182 51d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $182 52d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $185 52d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $185 52d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $193 52d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $193 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 326 history records