Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F1 0xf14e…d3a7 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+6%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate100%10W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$17
crypto 50% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +58.7% +43.6% 100% 70% +82.8%
≤30d 10 +58.7% +43.6% 100% 70% +82.8%
≤90d 10 +58.7% +43.6% 100% 70% +82.8%
all 10 +58.7% +43.6% 100% 70% +82.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +43.6% 70% +82.8%
10% ← realistic here +29.9% 30% +65.3%
15% +17.3% 10% +49.4%
20% +5.8% 10% +34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +102% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +102% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses10 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 +$17 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 57¢ $32 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records