Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

F1 0xf150…b6ff sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$168 (+13%) realized +$169 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate47%8W / 9L

Drawdown51%max

Avg bet$66per market

Trades / day3.9pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit55%portable

Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)+8.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+20.2%	+8.7%	47%	47%	+17.8%
≤30d	17	+20.2%	+8.7%	47%	47%	+17.8%
≤90d	17	+20.2%	+8.7%	47%	47%	+17.8%
all	17	+20.2%	+8.7%	47%	47%	+17.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.7%	47%	+17.8%
10%	-1.7%	47%	+6.5%
15%	-11.2%	47%	-3.8%
20%	-19.9%	47%	-13.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 47% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -1% → late +39% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$91 vs −$45 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$85

Realized+$169

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses8 / 9

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions2

Markets (closed)17 / 20

History coverage7d

Avg bet$66

Trades / day3.9

Drawdown51%

Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	46¢	46¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	41¢	40¢	$36	$36	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 29	$102	+$176	+172%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$51	$0	-1%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	Jun 28	$50	−$1	-3%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06	Jun 27	$50	+$164	+328%
Panama leading at halftime?	Jun 27	$49	−$48	-97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$81	+$57	+70%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 27	$61	+$50	+83%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	Jun 26	$51	−$50	-98%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	Jun 26	$71	+$52	+73%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5	Jun 26	$51	+$68	+134%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	Jun 26	$26	−$25	-98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score	Jun 24	$31	−$30	-98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$66	+$37	+57%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$47	−$47	-98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$101	−$100	-99%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$94	+$120	+129%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	41¢	$37	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	46¢	$51	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	36¢	$102	4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? AND Canada leading at halftime?	BUY	37¢	$50	34h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	SELL Yes	59¢	$50	35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	SELL Yes	47¢	$48	35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	45¢	$48	35h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	39h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	SELL Canada	73¢	$49	39h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	BUY Canada	74¢	$50	40h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	46¢	$51	40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	48¢	$51	40h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06	SELL	99¢	$214	46h
Panama leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	6¢	$49	2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06	BUY	22¢	$50	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	54¢	$61	2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	35¢	$51	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$81	2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	42¢	$51	3d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	21¢	$26	3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	57¢	$71	5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	41¢	$31	5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$47	5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	63¢	$66	5d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	63¢	$101	6d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5	BUY Over	43¢	$94	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.02 · official $85.02 (match) · 34 history records