Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:51:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf152…64aa
sports · 32 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
+$758,557 +71%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$434,937 · open −$4,126
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Net worth$186,630
Realized+$434,937
Unrealized−$4,126
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$5,570
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage3d
Avg bet$33,362
Trades / day1265.1
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 3 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130,632
7 days+$434,937
14 days+$434,937
30 days+$434,937
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 98¢ 98¢ $146,250 $146,925 +$675 (+0%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 52¢ $26,950 $26,006 −$944 (-4%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 54¢ 42¢ $17,556 $13,699 −$3,856 (-22%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 57¢ $20,639 $0 −$20,639 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $15,137 $0 −$15,137 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 47¢ $7,050 $0 −$7,050 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ $17,014 $0 −$17,014 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 51¢ $8,940 $0 −$8,940 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 58¢ $17,400 $0 −$17,400 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $69,929 +$40,899 +58%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $42,138 +$35,861 +85%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $26,100 +$18,900 +72%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $22,054 +$22,946 +104%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23,820 −$16,980 -71%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $11,893 +$18,602 +156%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $299,998 +$18,722 +6%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $19,774 +$19,764 +100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $6,443 −$6,443 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $6,900 −$6,900 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $8,850 −$8,850 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $7,440 −$7,440 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $16,170 −$16,170 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $16,560 −$16,560 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $29,070 −$29,070 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $8,940 −$8,940 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $20,670 −$20,639 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $7,050 −$7,050 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $15,230 −$15,137 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $17,400 −$17,400 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50,408 +$24,592 +49%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $14,162 +$7,296 +52%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $19,354 +$22,646 +117%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $20,222 +$15,778 +78%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $25,700 +$19,300 +75%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $34,499 +$36,761 +107%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $13,346 +$6,144 +46%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $9,206 +$5,886 +64%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $44,073 +$292,916 +665%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $11,076 +$8,356 +75%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $2,853 −$2,853 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 64% +$392,784
sports 36% +$38,027
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $69,184 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $218 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $78 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $61 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $195 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $9,307 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $195 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $37,864 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $309 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $66 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $117 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $189 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $620 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $39 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $154 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $309 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $558 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $309 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $3,102 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $39 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $124 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $464 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $57 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $309 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $99 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $3,497 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $93 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $154 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $188 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $744 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +16.4% +5.4% 55% 52% +33.5%
≤30d 31 +16.4% +5.4% 55% 52% +33.5%
≤90d 31 +16.4% +5.4% 55% 52% +33.5%
all 31 +16.4% +5.4% 55% 52% +33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1265.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.4% 52% +33.5%
10% -4.7% 52% +20.7%
15% ← realistic here -13.9% 52% +9.1%
20% -22.4% 45% -1.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186,630.18 · official $186,630.18 (match) · 3500 history records