Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:54:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf154…2f29 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-2%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$3
sports 28% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -13.7% -21.9% 42% 25% -12.2%
≤30d 12 -13.7% -21.9% 42% 25% -12.2%
≤90d 12 -13.7% -21.9% 42% 25% -12.2%
all 12 -13.7% -21.9% 42% 25% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 25% -12.2%
10% -29.4% 25% -20.6%
15% -36.2% 25% -28.2%
20% -42.5% 8% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)12 / 20
History coverage9d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 61¢ 62¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $13 +$2 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+32%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $7 $5 −$3 (-36%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-32%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$4 -61%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$2 -29%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$2 -50%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -41%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$6 -81%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $31 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 17h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 18h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 19h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 42h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 42h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 42h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 42h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 43h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 23¢ $0 45h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 23¢ $2 45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 45h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 46h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $7 46h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 47h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.78 · official $78.79 (match) · 45 history records