Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf155…76bd crypto 742 markets active 1h ago coverage 352d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$48,621 (+5%) realized +$48,478 · open +$143
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%382W / 344L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$1,353per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$4,275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,095
7 days−$8,760
14 days−$7,242
30 days+$3,320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% +$52,993
other 4% +$3,204
politics 4% −$3,697
sports 3% −$1,841
tech 0% −$1,909
crypto 0% +$84
finance 0% −$601
economics 0% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.4% -5.5% 57% 14% -14.1%
≤30d 49 +6.6% -3.6% 86% 37% -8.0%
≤90d 444 -49.7% -54.5% 36% 20% -5.3%
all 726 -1.5% -10.9% 53% 42% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 42% -4.8%
10% -19.4% 34% -13.9%
15% -27.2% 31% -22.2%
20% -34.3% 29% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +64% → late -67% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$255 vs −$144 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

352d coverage
Net worth$4,275
Realized+$48,478
Unrealized+$143
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses382 / 344
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions16
Markets (closed)726 / 742
History coverage352d
Avg bet$1,353
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 726 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 82¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 78¢ 89¢ $821 $940 +$119 (+15%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 77¢ 74¢ $616 $592 −$24 (-4%)
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? No 87¢ 97¢ $463 $515 +$52 (+11%)
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $240 $286 +$46 (+19%)
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? No 84¢ 99¢ $207 $247 +$39 (+19%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 67¢ 78¢ $127 $149 +$22 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? No 69¢ 44¢ $128 $82 −$46 (-36%)
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Yes 75¢ 68¢ $75 $68 −$7 (-9%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Yes 73¢ 36¢ $104 $51 −$54 (-51%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 76¢ 85¢ $32 $35 +$4 (+11%)
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? No 88¢ 89¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? Yes 89¢ 93¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $143,530 −$6,312 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $5,778 −$782 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $21,178 −$1,784 -8%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 10 $204 +$2 +1%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in May? Jun 10 $700 +$69 +10%
Will Starmer say "Public Health" during the next Prime Minister's Ques Jun 10 $153 +$2 +1%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J Jun 09 $103 +$46 +45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $14,055 +$1,222 +9%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $389 +$88 +23%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $23 +$15 +64%
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? Jun 03 $340 +$78 +23%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 02 $255 +$114 +45%
Anthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 31? Jun 02 $394 +$86 +22%
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31? Jun 02 $14 +$1 +7%
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in May 2026? Jun 02 $71 +$18 +26%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? Jun 01 $77 +$22 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $46,484 +$279 +1%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? Jun 01 $480 +$68 +14%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? Jun 01 $562 −$19 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 01 $373 +$112 +30%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? Jun 01 $119 +$49 +41%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $132,431 +$12,906 +10%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 28 $1,230 +$128 +10%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May May 28 $4,562 +$91 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $8,318 +$2,974 +36%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 25 $132 +$24 +18%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 24 $1,550 +$173 +11%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 23 $819 +$40 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026? May 23 $881 +$94 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $1,386 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 22 $9,948 −$7,018 -70%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? May 22 $1,292 +$2 +0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22? May 22 $2,512 +$29 +1%
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? May 22 $304 +$33 +11%
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? May 22 $991 +$29 +3%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 21 $457 +$1 +0%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 21 $10,610 +$81 +1%
Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e May 20 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Ministe May 20 $849 +$1 +0%
Will Starmer say "Anti-Semitism" or "Anti-Semitic" during the next Pri May 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Starmer say "Northern Ireland" during the next Prime Minister's Q May 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $904 +$81 +9%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "Administration" 10+ times du May 19 $58 $0 +0%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "Democrat" 3+ times during th May 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "Thing" 10+ times during the May 19 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026? May 19 $106 +$14 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 18 $949 +$33 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026? May 17 $1,481 +$232 +16%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 17 $9,916 +$1,585 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? BUY No 88¢ $10 53m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 77¢ $622 57m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $1,000 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $39,851 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1,588 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1,577 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2,100 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2,797 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $1,196 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $425 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $4 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $2 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $1,072 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $228 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $4,511 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $6,008 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $682 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $7,328 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $6,645 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $402 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $6,402 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3,000 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $65 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2,053 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $150 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1,794 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $23 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $1 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $345 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2,174 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,275.02 · official $4,275.14 (match) · 3091 history records