Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:37:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf157…445a other 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate26%29W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$24
other 24% +$2
sports 15% −$4
politics 9% +$3
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 28% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 55 -2.6% -11.9% 31% 4% -10.0%
all 113 -0.7% -10.2% 26% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 4% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 3% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses29 / 84
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)113 / 116
History coverage294d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 89¢ 85¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-54%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $82 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $82 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $184 −$2 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $84 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $84 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $286 −$5 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $91 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $100 −$3 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $78 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $100 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $112 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $175 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $190 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $193 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $193 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $89 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $130 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $99 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $334 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $265 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $102 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $17 +$22 +128%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $58 −$27 -48%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $92 −$4 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $4 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $15 −$2 -15%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $97 −$1 -1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $113 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +23%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $79 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 10 $7 −$1 -16%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $346 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $113 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $15 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $350 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $57 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $212 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $7 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $179 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $192 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $83 +$1 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $107 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $206 −$5 -2%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $47 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $26 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 3h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $82 16h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $82 21h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $82 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $35 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $43 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $83 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $71 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $13 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $49 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $35 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $47 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $17 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $24 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $57 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $3 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $0.00 (match) · 675 history records