Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:04:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf15a…4c09 world 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$871 (+5%) realized +$945 · open −$74
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$1,456per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,810now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$879
14 days−$863
30 days+$817
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% +$794
other 4% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -10.0% -18.6% 50% 17% -16.4%
≤30d 12 +24.3% +12.5% 50% 33% -5.1%
≤90d 12 +24.3% +12.5% 50% 33% -5.1%
all 12 +24.3% +12.5% 50% 33% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.5% 33% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here +1.7% 25% -14.2%
15% -8.1% 25% -22.4%
20% -17.1% 25% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
16.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$544 vs −$407 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$1,810
Realized+$945
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage28d
Avg bet$1,456
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1,884 $1,810 −$74 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $951 +$15 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2,539 −$2,088 -82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4,040 +$123 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $2,420 +$1,237 +51%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $671 −$52 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,400 −$114 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1,222 −$15 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1,012 +$206 +20%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $600 −$143 -24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1,257 −$33 -3%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $600 +$1,090 +182%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $332 +$590 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $95 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $58 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $96 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $208 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $214 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $407 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $120 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $104 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $62 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $68 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $280 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $965 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $84 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,809.60 · official $1,809.60 (match) · 254 history records