Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf15a…8fc0
weather · 41 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$238 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7 · open −$245
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$613
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$245
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses27 / 5
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions9
Markets (closed)32 / 41
Avg bet$100
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 9 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 96¢ $269 $514 +$245 (+91%)
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 4¢ $269 $24 −$245 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 9? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Jun Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on May 28? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on May 28? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 28? May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C or higher on May 27? May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 27? May 28 $9 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $550 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 22 $615 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on May 15? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on May 15? May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on May 15? May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 15? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or higher on May 9? May 09 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on May 9? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on May 9? May 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 9? May 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on April 28? May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 48°C on April 28? May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 11°C or below on April 28 May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 48-49°F on Ap May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 28 $571 −$3 -1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 27 $5 −$2 -36%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $448 +$5 +1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $294 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $298 +$4 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $415 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 18 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 37% +$3
sports 21% +$4
crypto 16% −$242
culture 14% −$3
other 7% $0
weather 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or below on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $9 3d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $6 16d
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C or higher on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $6 16d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $8 16d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 16d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $9 16d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $8 16d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 54¢ $297 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 46¢ $1 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 46¢ $13 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 46¢ $1 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 46¢ $2 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 46¢ $45 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 46¢ $9 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 46¢ $8 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 46¢ $174 20d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $9 29d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 88% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 31 -0.7% -10.2% 84% 0% -9.4%
all 32 -0.6% -10.1% 84% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $613.43 · official $613.43 (match) · 230 history records