Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:22:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf15b…8c10 weather 953 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$323 (-8%) realized −$308 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate58%532W / 384L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day40.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$30
14 days−$33
30 days−$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$4
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 259 -2.6% -11.8% 77% 25% -11.3%
≤30d 740 -24.4% -31.6% 56% 24% -15.9%
≤90d 916 -3.0% -12.3% 58% 32% -10.0%
all 916 -3.0% -12.3% 58% 32% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 32% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 21% -18.7%
15% -28.3% 14% -26.5%
20% -35.3% 11% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$308
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses532 / 384
Open positions39
Markets (closed)916 / 953
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day40.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 916 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? No 66¢ 72¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? No 82¢ 86¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? No 96¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? No 70¢ 70¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? No 87¢ 86¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? No 89¢ 88¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? No 91¢ 90¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 18? No 92¢ 90¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? No 98¢ 96¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? No 98¢ 94¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? No 92¢ 87¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 17? No 98¢ 92¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? No 85¢ 76¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 17? No 91¢ 76¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? No 81¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 17? No 74¢ 40¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-47%)
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 49¢ 19¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? No 76¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 63¢ 12¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-80%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? No 74¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? No 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? No 69¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $6 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $6 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $6 10m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $6 12m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 95¢ $6 14m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $6 14m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL No 96¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL No 96¢ $5 18m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $6 40m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $6 47m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 87¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? SELL No 76¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 92¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 75¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 92¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $6 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.60 · official $108.06 · 3500 history records