Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F1 0xf15b…000f crypto 274 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (167 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$803 (-1%) realized −$802 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate72%214W / 84L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day166.9pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$859now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$1,792
sports 8% +$963
other 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (167 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -37.7% -43.7% 31% 31% -54.4%
≤30d 298 -11.0% -19.5% 72% 17% -17.7%
≤90d 298 -11.0% -19.5% 72% 17% -17.7%
all 298 -11.0% -19.5% 72% 17% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover166.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 17% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 13% -25.6%
15% -34.2% 10% -32.7%
20% -40.7% 8% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$119 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$859
Realized−$802
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses214 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions7
Markets (closed)298 / 274
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$197
Trades / day166.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 17¢ 18¢ $260 $268 +$8 (+3%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 56¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 55¢ 55¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 161.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Over 59¢ 57¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $151 −$151 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $168 −$168 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $402 −$402 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $196 −$196 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $348 −$348 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $237 −$237 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $347 −$347 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $338 −$338 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $589 −$589 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $679 −$679 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$125 +82%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $153 +$210 +138%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $152 +$126 +83%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $101 +$63 +62%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $102 +$120 +118%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $151 +$69 +46%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $101 +$95 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $101 +$33 +32%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $101 +$33 +32%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $202 −$200 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$51 +250%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $101 +$95 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $101 +$63 +62%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Jun 11 $101 +$80 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 161.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $101 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $101 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $101 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 48¢ $102 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $277 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $363 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $152 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $102 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 11h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 100¢ $279 12h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $172 14h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 92¢ $164 15h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 100¢ $222 15h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $102 25h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 25h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $61 25h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $102 26h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $102 26h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 59¢ $101 26h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $101 26h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 54¢ $152 26h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $101 26h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli SELL Jesper de Jong 100¢ $133 6d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 60¢ $101 6d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 78¢ $101 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 67¢ $50 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 60¢ $101 6d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli BUY Jesper de Jong 75¢ $101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $859.36 · official $859.36 (match) · 3500 history records