Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:08:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf15c…8e95
crypto · 87 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$83 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses50 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)85 / 87
History coverage586d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 2 History 85 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$26
14 days+$29
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 95¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 21? No 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 24? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dubai Tennis Championships, Qualification: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Shevchenko Shevchenko 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 29-October 5? No 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 63¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by January 31, 2025? No 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 17? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 4? No 93¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 25? No 70¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 25? No 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) South Africa 60¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 20? No 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 25? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-02-21? No 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 28? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 21? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 11? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Hanwha Life Esports 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -88%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +54%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$8 +151%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +88%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 16? May 31 $7 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 23 $7 +$4 +64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 10? Mar 15 $13 +$7 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 11? Mar 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 10 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 7? Mar 10 $7 +$3 +47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $28 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 7? Mar 10 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 8? Mar 08 $31 +$18 +59%
Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 08 $7 +$2 +33%
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 07 $10 −$4 -41%
Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch? Mar 07 $8 +$2 +30%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 07 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 5? Mar 07 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? Mar 05 $10 −$6 -59%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 05 $54 +$4 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 4? Mar 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 28? Feb 28 $38 −$8 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 28? Feb 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $11 +$9 +82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 26? Feb 26 $9 −$5 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 25? Feb 25 $10 +$10 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 25? Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 25? Feb 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $6 +$24 +400%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 24? Feb 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $9 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Sangal (BO3) - META Cup Playoffs Feb 22 $9 +$1 +11%
Dubai Tennis Championships, Qualification: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Feb 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-02-21? Feb 22 $8 −$4 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 21? Feb 21 $9 −$5 -56%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 21? Feb 21 $10 $0 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $9 −$2 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 62% −$104
other 31% +$13
sports 6% +$2
politics 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 27m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $13 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $12 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $23 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 16h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 16h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $5 16h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $6 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 60¢ $6 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 13d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 21d
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 59¢ $11 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 16? BUY Yes 74¢ $7 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 11? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 10? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 10? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 10? BUY No 45¢ $4 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 9? BUY No 50¢ $15 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +34.8% +21.9% 67% 67% +21.5%
≤30d 15 +27.8% +15.6% 67% 67% +17.1%
≤90d 15 +27.8% +15.6% 67% 67% +17.1%
all 85 -4.3% -13.4% 59% 48% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 48% -18.3%
10% -21.7% 38% -26.1%
15% -29.2% 26% -33.3%
20% -36.2% 22% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.04 · official $19.04 (match) · 205 history records