Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:24:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf15e…4d7f sports 244 markets active 2h ago coverage 554d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate74%181W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$7
other 15% +$7
politics 2% +$1
world 2% +$5
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -29.8% -36.5% 67% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 16 -4.9% -13.9% 88% 0% -9.2%
all 243 +1.8% -7.9% 74% 56% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 56% -9.2%
10% -16.7% 47% -17.9%
15% -24.7% 30% -25.8%
20% -32.1% 12% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

554d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses181 / 62
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)243 / 244
History coverage554d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $46 +$4 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $64 +$1 +2%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $61 +$3 +6%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 10 $108 $0 +0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $386 +$1 +0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $112 +$1 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $432 +$2 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $163 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $451 +$2 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 06 $57 +$1 +1%
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $154 −$1 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $212 +$1 +1%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $110 $0 +0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $52 +$1 +1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $114 $0 +0%
Akron vs. Bowling Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Islanders vs. Stars Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Hellenic Championship: Reilly Opelka vs Vit Kopriva Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Sonay Kartal vs Sara Bejlek Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Braves vs. Mets Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Nationals vs. Astros Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Steelers vs. Jaguars Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Kings Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Hawks vs. Wizards Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the US strike Venezuela next? Mar 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 16 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 09 $51 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - Ace South Feb 06 $8 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 06 $3 +$2 +56%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 06 $3 +$2 +56%
KHL: Lada Togliatti vs. Dinamo Minsk Feb 06 $3 +$1 +32%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Alexandra Eala vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Feb 06 $3 +$1 +35%
Valorant: VARREL vs Gen.G Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs Feb 06 $3 +$1 +43%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - LCP Regular Seaso Feb 06 $10 +$1 +10%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseve Feb 06 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the US strike Iraq next? Feb 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 04 $101 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jan 27 $47 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 26 $48 $0 -0%
Will the US strike another country first? Jan 23 $44 +$1 +1%
Will the US strike Colombia next? Jan 17 $47 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 16 $66 $0 +0%
Will the US strike another country first? Jan 15 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the US strike Cuba nex Jan 12 $89 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 1h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $46 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Jannik Sinner 36¢ $7 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 98¢ $59 26d
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY No 98¢ $64 34d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 95¢ $38 38d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 95¢ $22 38d
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 41d
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 46d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $2 52d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $7 53d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $21 53d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $30 53d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $36 53d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $20 53d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $5 53d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $60 56d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $5 62d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $19 62d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $13 62d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $15 62d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $5 62d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $3 64d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $57 64d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $57 64d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $60 65d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $60 65d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $5 67d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $1 73d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $2 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.36 · official $63.36 (match) · 731 history records