Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:16:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf15f…4497 other 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$748 (-3%) realized −$888 · open +$140
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate55%42W / 34L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,473
7 days+$3,062
14 days+$651
30 days+$651
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$1,027
sports 24% +$2,290
politics 13% −$2,900
crypto 1% −$195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +0.2% -9.3% 63% 43% +3.2%
≤30d 71 -10.5% -19.0% 56% 39% -7.2%
≤90d 76 -11.9% -20.3% 55% 39% -9.2%
all 76 -11.9% -20.3% 55% 39% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 39% -9.2%
10% -27.9% 30% -17.9%
15% -34.9% 18% -25.9%
20% -41.3% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$137 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized−$888
Unrealized+$140
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses42 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions3
Markets (closed)76 / 79
History coverage68d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 44¢ 100¢ $100 $227 +$127 (+127%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 86¢ 100¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $8 −$3 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 −$40 -40%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $69 +$52 +76%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $906 +$109 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 +$5 +23%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$4 +36%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 20 $10 −$5 -45%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,006 +$260 +26%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $20 +$7 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,000 +$63 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,086 +$429 +40%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$36 -71%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 $0 -9%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners AND Will Canada win on 2026-0 Jun 19 $790 +$567 +72%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,001 +$20 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 +$1 +7%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $904 +$143 +16%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$17 -50%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,423 +$301 +21%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $783 −$444 -57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,068 +$88 +8%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $1,001 +$19 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,006 +$229 +23%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $144 −$142 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $112 +$29 +26%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,007 +$326 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $88 −$76 -86%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $128 +$51 +40%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$3 -37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,005 +$196 +20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,125 +$1 +0%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,028 +$170 +8%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $144 −$75 -52%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$75 +184%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $105 +$54 +52%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $298 +$967 +324%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $235 +$65 +28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $423 −$188 -44%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $319 +$103 +32%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $112 −$101 -91%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 −$28 -56%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $409 +$39 +10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $74 −$64 -86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$25 -86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $491 +$6 +1%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $456 +$35 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 47m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 22¢ $33 47m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 21¢ $28 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $100 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Under 47¢ $6 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 84¢ $10 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $10 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 81¢ $20 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $10 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $906 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,006 7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $901 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $99 10h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 56¢ $69 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,008 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 15¢ $15 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $51 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $78 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 28h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 13¢ $4 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.20 · official $351.20 (match) · 207 history records