Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:13:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf162…ba35 politics 304 markets active 1h ago coverage 569d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$3,827 (-3%) realized +$1,246 · open −$5,697
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate64%187W / 106L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$498per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$3,185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$176
7 days+$176
14 days+$2,090
30 days+$2,090
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$4,705
other 22% −$1,970
crypto 19% +$380
world 19% +$624
tech 4% +$1,160
sports 1% +$309
economics 0% +$7
finance 0% −$257
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +17.6% +6.4% 100% 100% +6.4%
≤30d 4 +17.7% +6.5% 75% 75% +16.6%
≤90d 30 -31.4% -37.9% 43% 37% -5.2%
all 293 -6.2% -15.1% 64% 26% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 26% -8.7%
10% -23.2% 17% -17.5%
15% -30.7% 11% -25.4%
20% -37.5% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$616) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$155 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

569d coverage
Net worth$3,185
Realized+$1,246
Unrealized−$5,697
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses187 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)293 / 304
History coverage569d
Avg bet$498
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $1,100 $1,109 +$9 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 63¢ 36¢ $1,300 $755 −$545 (-42%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 63¢ 6¢ $5,177 $538 −$4,639 (-90%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 6¢ 4¢ $500 $380 −$120 (-24%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 4¢ 2¢ $500 $272 −$228 (-46%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? No 85¢ 78¢ $95 $86 −$8 (-9%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes 38¢ 15¢ $78 $31 −$47 (-61%)
Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027? No 30¢ 24¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? Yes 36¢ 10¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-74%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 66¢ 1¢ $112 $2 −$110 (-98%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $1,000 +$176 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $2,336 +$1,518 +65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $900 −$323 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $3,000 +$719 +24%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? May 05 $1 +$1 +59%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on April 28? Apr 28 $100 −$98 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $4,925 +$2,248 +46%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 12 $1 $0 +12%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026? Apr 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? Apr 12 $100 +$37 +37%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 12 $200 +$36 +18%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Mar 22 $1 $0 -28%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Mar 22 $496 −$496 -100%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Mar 22 $1,477 −$665 -45%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? Mar 22 $793 −$793 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Mar 22 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by August 31? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January? Mar 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31? Mar 22 $1 $0 -42%
Will Mamdani visit the White House by December 31? Mar 22 $378 −$378 -100%
Will MrBeast reach 450 million subscribers in 2025? Mar 22 $3,198 −$202 -6%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Mar 22 $709 −$709 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win 4 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral G Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Mar 22 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Mar 22 $100 +$9 +9%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Januar Mar 22 $184 +$50 +28%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Mar 22 $1,000 +$191 +19%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? Jan 26 $33 −$3 -9%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Jan 26 $115 +$13 +11%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jan 10 $3 −$2 -77%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 10 $6 −$2 -36%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jan 10 $10 −$4 -36%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 10 $84 −$14 -17%
TrumpRX launched by January 31, 2026? Jan 06 $200 −$27 -14%
Trump enacts a de minimis crypto tax exemption before 2026? Jan 02 $1 $0 +39%
Hyperunit backed by Paradigm in 2025? Jan 02 $1 $0 +49%
Rosie O'Donnell citizenship revoked in 2025? Jan 02 $10 $0 +4%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 02 $20 $0 +2%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? Jan 02 $38 +$2 +6%
Trump agrees to send U.S. peacekeeping force to Ukraine? Jan 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing? Jan 02 $100 +$12 +12%
Nothing Ever Happens: December Jan 02 $100 +$39 +39%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 02 $499 +$43 +9%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Jan 02 $753 +$103 +14%
Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase in 2025? Jan 02 $586 +$325 +55%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 02 $1,000 +$83 +8%
5% GDP contraction in Q3 2025? Dec 29 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $1,304 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $500 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $500 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $847 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $300 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $329 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $177 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $1,000 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $5,000 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,000 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,000 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $3,854 11d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,000 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $577 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY Yes 66¢ $113 40d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 56¢ $1,336 40d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $80 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $3,000 42d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $900 42d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on April 28? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 47d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 46¢ $1,000 47d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 99¢ $7,173 50d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 63¢ $1,925 82d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 71¢ $3,000 84d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1 84d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? BUY No 63¢ $1 84d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 89¢ $1 84d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? SELL No 51¢ $30 139d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? SELL No 40¢ $128 139d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? SELL No 74¢ $12 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,185.11 · official $3,186.12 (match) · 1170 history records