Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:47:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf164…47f5 sports 128 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$503 (+12%) realized +$556 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate63%79W / 47L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$123
14 days+$444
30 days+$467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$364
other 9% +$32
world 5% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -1.6% -10.9% 53% 51% -2.9%
≤30d 126 +9.0% -1.3% 63% 54% +1.1%
≤90d 126 +9.0% -1.3% 63% 54% +1.1%
all 126 +9.0% -1.3% 63% 54% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 54% +1.1%
10% -10.8% 43% -8.6%
15% -19.4% 31% -17.4%
20% -27.3% 21% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$556
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses79 / 47
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)126 / 128
History coverage19d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner FURIA 31¢ 30¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner FURIA 15¢ $53 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $221 +$27 +12%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $16 −$6 -36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $58 −$6 -10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $41 −$24 -60%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $61 +$35 +58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $30 +$6 +21%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$2 +31%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $145 +$24 +17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $15 +$7 +49%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $222 +$73 +33%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$9 -85%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +50%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $2 +$4 +177%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +474%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$7 +134%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$3 +123%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $206 +$18 +9%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +123%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $201 +$27 +13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $40 −$11 -27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$31 +30%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -96%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $50 +$19 +38%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $62 +$119 +192%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 28¢ $10 10m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 35¢ $10 13m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 55¢ $13 17m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $10 19m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL FURIA 56¢ $13 20m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 42¢ $10 25m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 41¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 12¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 21¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $223 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 87¢ $100 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 92¢ $100 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 80¢ $13 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 37¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 45¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 33¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 41¢ $5 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $88 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $51 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $10 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 57¢ $16 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $20 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $96 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $61 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $37 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 82¢ $30 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 70¢ $7 38h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $3 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.22 · official $19.22 (match) · 394 history records