Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:04:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf165…5505 crypto 2172 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$100 (-2%) realized −$101 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%1095W / 532L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day118.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,815
7 days−$1,704
14 days−$1,404
30 days−$1,069
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$950
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 566 +5.5% -4.5% 57% 57% -65.5%
≤30d 1627 +27.6% +15.4% 67% 67% -27.3%
≤90d 1627 +27.6% +15.4% 67% 67% -27.3%
all 1627 +27.6% +15.4% 67% 67% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.4% 67% -27.3%
10% ← realistic here +4.4% 66% -34.2%
15% -5.7% 61% -40.6%
20% -14.9% 58% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses1095 / 532
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1627 / 2172
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day118.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1627 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 55¢ 88¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.13 · official $7.19 (match) · 3500 history records