Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:17:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F1 0xf16a…aadf other 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$969 (-1%) realized −$971 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate19%22W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,139per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$563now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$16
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$69
politics 34% −$50
sports 21% −$1,026
culture 1% +$27
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 51 -2.1% -11.4% 6% 0% -10.8%
all 113 -0.4% -9.9% 19% 14% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 14% -10.2%
10% -18.5% 14% -18.8%
15% -26.4% 12% -26.6%
20% -33.6% 10% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,480) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$23 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$563
Realized−$971
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses22 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage131d
Avg bet$1,139
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $561 $563 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $1,950 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $1,307 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,238 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,422 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,337 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,970 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $864 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $2,732 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2,003 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $2,652 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,933 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 04 $68 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $4,005 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $936 −$1 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 24 $1,160 −$1,160 -100%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2,960 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $2,985 −$3 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,255 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $2,255 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,165 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $3,157 −$3 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $2,081 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,136 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,270 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $3,077 −$3 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $847 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $842 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,132 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $3,887 −$4 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $2,085 −$2 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $3,115 −$3 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 11 $1,084 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $1,937 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $958 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $3,688 −$4 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $3,978 −$4 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $1,058 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $1,120 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $971 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $463 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $463 3h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $482 17h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $483 20h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $437 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $438 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $466 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $466 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $463 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $464 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $383 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $384 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $561 10d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $757 11d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $759 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $824 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $825 12d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $863 12d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $864 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $823 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $824 13d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $846 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $847 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $945 18d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $947 18d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $894 19d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $895 19d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $772 20d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $773 20d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $744 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $562.90 · official $562.90 (match) · 405 history records