Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:50:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf16a…b564 crypto 320 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,049 (-9%) realized −$3,049 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%118W / 202L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$787
7 days+$54
14 days−$358
30 days−$468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$879
world 20% −$1,593
other 7% −$885
politics 7% −$198
tech 2% −$167
sports 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -15.9% -23.9% 35% 35% -8.9%
≤30d 69 -17.7% -25.6% 35% 35% -14.2%
≤90d 201 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 41% -13.7%
all 320 -18.6% -26.4% 37% 33% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 33% -19.2%
10% -33.4% 29% -26.9%
15% -39.8% 25% -34.0%
20% -45.7% 24% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$64 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,049
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses118 / 202
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)320 / 320
History coverage231d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 320 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $166 −$18 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $183 −$183 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $167 −$106 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $189 +$240 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $405 +$164 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$98 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$198 +376%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $145 −$109 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $387 +$560 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$135 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $67 +$16 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $351 −$112 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $270 −$270 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $63 +$44 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $104 +$95 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $368 +$831 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $315 +$293 +93%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $146 −$146 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $57 −$29 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $103 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $200 +$262 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $404 −$73 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $177 −$177 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $323 −$323 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $220 −$220 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $94 +$55 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $193 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $177 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $391 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1654 history records