Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf16d…bd83
crypto · 91 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$68 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$63 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses61 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage44d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 89 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 70¢ 88¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 26¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -7.6% -16.4% 72% 27% -14.0%
≤30d 62 -7.0% -15.8% 73% 27% -13.3%
≤90d 89 -9.2% -17.8% 69% 22% -15.4%
all 89 -9.2% -17.8% 69% 22% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 22% -15.4%
10% -25.7% 15% -23.5%
15% -32.9% 4% -30.9%
20% -39.4% 1% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.38 · official $6.38 (match) · 3500 history records