Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:18:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf16d…a247 other 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,449 (-4%) realized −$4,440 · open +$1,991
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%72W / 63L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$490per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$6,755now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,957
7 days−$3,295
14 days−$2,954
30 days−$2,954
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$3,518
other 49% +$2,636
tech 0% −$157
politics 0% +$19
world 0% +$142
culture 0% +$2
economics 0% +$8
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -9.5% -18.1% 89% 0% -16.0%
≤30d 20 -5.2% -14.2% 85% 10% -13.9%
≤90d 20 -5.2% -14.2% 85% 10% -13.9%
all 135 +8.1% -2.2% 53% 41% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 41% -13.7%
10% -11.5% 35% -21.9%
15% -20.1% 29% -29.5%
20% -27.9% 24% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$73 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$6,755
Realized−$4,440
Unrealized+$1,991
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses72 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions2
Markets (closed)135 / 137
History coverage617d
Avg bet$490
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 67¢ 96¢ $4,764 $6,754 +$1,990 (+42%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $2,317 +$3 +0%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $4,002 −$4,000 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4,001 +$40 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $8,687 +$85 +1%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $8,603 +$84 +1%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $8,405 +$166 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4,004 +$136 +3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,337 +$141 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,993 +$50 +2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $3,001 +$29 +1%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3,003 +$107 +4%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $2,002 +$66 +3%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4,303 +$86 +2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,001 +$30 +3%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $612 +$18 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $183 +$6 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 28 $53 +$142 +270%
Over $2M committed to the Trove public sale? Jan 09 $51 +$2 +4%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark Jan 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jan 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $300k in 2025? Jan 04 $84 +$16 +19%
Will Metamask daily perps revenue hit $100k in 2025? Jan 04 $69 +$32 +47%
Will Brighton vs. Leeds United end in a draw? Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Nov 02 $1 +$3 +285%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 02 $1 +$7 +669%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? Oct 28 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Oct 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 14 $47 −$43 -92%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Oct 06 $4 +$6 +150%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Aug 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $200k in 2025? Aug 14 $137 +$31 +23%
US recession in 2025? Aug 14 $5 +$6 +126%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Aug 03 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Jul 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking? Jul 27 $5 +$9 +178%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 29 $2 −$1 -71%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Spanish Grand Prix? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +70%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +325%
Elon out of Trump administration before July? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 01 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? May 25 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 25 $1 $0 -17%
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 25 $3 −$1 -29%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 25 $2 $0 -0%
Will the next Pope be from Europe? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $2,318 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $904 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,587 16h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $4,002 16h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,317 16h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $4,001 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 99¢ $8,687 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 99¢ $8,603 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $8,405 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $4,004 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $3,337 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $193 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $799 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,001 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,001 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $3,001 7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $3,003 8d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,301 8d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $3,002 8d
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,002 8d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,001 9d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 9d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $14 9d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $601 9d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $612 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $78 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,755.21 · official $6,758.74 (match) · 320 history records