Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:16:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf175…12c7
sports · 342 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$158 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$141 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$147
Realized−$141
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses147 / 140
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions55
Markets (closed)287 / 342
History coverage5d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day117.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 55 History 287 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$141
14 days−$141
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Baltimore Orioles 26¢ 62¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+137%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 54¢ 99¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+83%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Over 48¢ 78¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 62¢ 92¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+48%)
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Miami Marlins 30¢ 93¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+213%)
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+2%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 92¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 88¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 43¢ 34¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) Baltimore Orioles 82¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+19%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 29¢ 92¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+219%)
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Miami Marlins 30¢ 96¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+218%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Under 33¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 84¢ 88¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) Toronto Blue Jays 41¢ 55¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+33%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Under 48¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Under 38¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 30¢ 12¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) New York Mets 80¢ 56¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Under 38¢ 76¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 79¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 40¢ 29¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 89¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $4 +$8 +212%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $6 −$1 -10%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +119%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $5 +$3 +58%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $6 +$1 +21%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $12 −$3 -28%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 12 $2 +$2 +78%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $6 −$5 -82%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 12 $10 −$2 -16%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $7 −$2 -24%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $4 −$1 -12%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +109%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $6 −$4 -62%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $10 −$2 -24%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 11 $3 −$1 -20%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +22%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$3 +62%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% −$166
other 2% +$8
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 29¢ $1 2m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 19¢ $1 9m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 38¢ $2 11m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 27¢ $1 11m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 48¢ $3 11m
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 55¢ $1 13m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 19¢ $1 14m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) BUY New York Mets 80¢ $3 15m
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 24¢ $1 15m
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) BUY New York Mets 18¢ $1 15m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 25¢ $1 15m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 43¢ $1 15m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 37¢ $1 15m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 40¢ $3 15m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1 17m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $2 18m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 18m
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 66¢ $1 18m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 23m
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) BUY San Diego Padres 38¢ $1 26m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 26m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $2 26m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 26m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 91¢ $2 26m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 26m
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 67¢ $1 27m
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 52¢ $2 27m
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 82¢ $1 31m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 32¢ $2 31m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 287 -4.8% -13.9% 51% 47% -19.3%
≤30d 287 -4.8% -13.9% 51% 47% -19.3%
≤90d 287 -4.8% -13.9% 51% 47% -19.3%
all 287 -4.8% -13.9% 51% 47% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover117.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 47% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 42% -27.1%
15% -29.6% 32% -34.1%
20% -36.5% 27% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.61 · official $147.20 (match) · 811 history records