Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:48:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F1 0xf175…d55d crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$14 (+7%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR79%break-even
Win rate79%11W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +79%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +14.8% +3.9% 79% 79% -2.9%
≤30d 14 +14.8% +3.9% 79% 79% -2.9%
≤90d 14 +14.8% +3.9% 79% 79% -2.9%
all 14 +14.8% +3.9% 79% 79% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.9% 79% -2.9%
10% ← realistic here -6.1% 79% -12.2%
15% -15.2% 50% -20.7%
20% -23.5% 21% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses11 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $9 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $17 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 29 $19 +$8 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 29 $23 +$18 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $9 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $6 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $6 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $6 +$5 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records