Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:58:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf17a…f7b2 sports 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$172 (-5%) realized −$172 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate62%94W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$82
sports 42% −$78
other 8% −$60
politics 3% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +2.0% -7.8% 65% 61% -11.3%
≤30d 105 -3.2% -12.4% 60% 52% -17.8%
≤90d 151 -2.6% -11.9% 62% 46% -14.7%
all 151 -2.6% -11.9% 62% 46% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 46% -14.7%
10% -20.3% 37% -22.9%
15% -28.0% 30% -30.3%
20% -35.1% 21% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses94 / 57
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage41d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 +$9 +24%
Set Handicap: Vukic (-1.5) vs Stewart (+1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $10 +$10 +102%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk Jun 21 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$9 +44%
Paul vs. Humbert: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $20 +$10 +48%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $110 −$2 -2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Zverev vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 20 $20 +$12 +61%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $20 +$5 +24%
Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$13 +65%
Tiafoe vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 19 $20 +$17 +82%
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$12 +114%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 18 $24 $0 +1%
Paul vs. Zandschulp: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 18 $20 +$11 +55%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $30 +$4 +14%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $20 +$3 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -17%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 29 $67 −$67 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic May 27 $58 +$8 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys May 27 $49 +$9 +19%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $30 +$19 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $202 −$88 -44%
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana May 26 $105 +$11 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $5 −$4 -86%
Centurion: Sidharth Rawat vs Orel Kimhi May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov May 26 $3 +$1 +20%
Centurion: Robert Strombachs vs Robin Bertrand May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 26 $5 +$1 +16%
Centurion: Filip Peliwo vs Arda Azkara May 26 $3 +$3 +86%
Chisinau: Francesco Maestrelli vs Kimmer Coppejans May 26 $3 $0 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 26 $13 +$5 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev May 26 $1 +$3 +332%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Zachary Svajda May 26 $1 +$2 +172%
Kosice: Mathys Erhard vs Ivan Ivanov May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Kosice: Peter Fajta vs Paulo Dos Santos May 26 $3 +$2 +72%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi May 26 $3 $0 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexandre Muller vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 26 $10 $0 +4%
Kosice: Dali Blanch vs Carlo Alberto Caniato May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Zhizhen Zhang May 26 $3 +$1 +20%
Kosice: Andrej Martin vs Jozef Kovalik May 26 $3 +$2 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $44 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk SELL Aleksandar Vukic 100¢ $32 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel BUY Matteo Arnaldi 49¢ $10 12h
Set Handicap: Vukic (-1.5) vs Stewart (+1.5) BUY Vukic 45¢ $10 17h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk BUY Aleksandar Vukic 63¢ $20 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $29 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 28h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 67¢ $20 32h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $50 32h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev $0 32h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 99¢ $50 32h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 92¢ $57 32h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 80¢ $50 33h
Paul vs. Humbert: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 33h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 56¢ $10 33h
Zverev vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 33h
Zverev vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 36h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray SELL Matteo Arnaldi 83¢ $25 36h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart BUY Emilio Nava 67¢ $20 41h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Matteo Arnaldi 66¢ $20 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 2d
Tiafoe vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Over 100¢ $37 2d
Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
Tiafoe vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 2d
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 46¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.76 · official $29.76 (match) · 366 history records