Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:17:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F1 0xf180…a062 other 91 markets active 3d ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$421 (+5%) realized +$422 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%47W / 38L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$142
14 days+$383
30 days+$378
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$456
other 34% −$71
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -20.1% -27.7% 33% 33% -18.2%
≤30d 80 +18.5% +7.2% 54% 51% -5.8%
≤90d 85 +21.8% +10.2% 55% 53% -5.7%
all 85 +21.8% +10.2% 55% 53% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.2% 53% -5.7%
10% -0.3% 45% -14.7%
15% -10.0% 38% -22.9%
20% -18.8% 32% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$56 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$422
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses47 / 38
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions6
Markets (closed)85 / 91
History coverage29d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+116%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $51 −$26 -51%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $85 +$27 +31%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $88 +$18 +20%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $202 −$143 -71%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $86 −$57 -66%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $202 −$46 -23%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $202 +$131 +64%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $101 +$95 +93%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $202 −$55 -27%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 22 $202 −$24 -12%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $203 −$108 -53%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $101 +$94 +93%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $201 +$58 +29%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $635 −$185 -29%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $805 −$257 -32%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $659 +$236 +36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 +$138 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $89 +$130 +145%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 +$151 +148%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $103 +$5 +5%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $139 +$97 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $181 −$42 -23%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $201 −$69 -34%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 −$55 -54%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 +$107 +53%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $100 +$110 +110%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 +$205 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $252 −$73 -29%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $88 +$123 +139%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $173 −$103 -60%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $232 +$114 +49%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $243 −$171 -71%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $302 +$60 +20%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $196 −$40 -20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $175 +$166 +95%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$57 +111%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $261 +$3 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $341 −$73 -22%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $168 +$139 +83%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -19%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -27%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -9%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $81 +$87 +107%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $40 +$41 +102%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$3 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 1.5 SELL Over 16¢ $25 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $51 2d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $41 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $43 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $45 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $31 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $88 5d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 19¢ $59 6d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 29¢ $29 6d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $86 6d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $202 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 48¢ $157 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $202 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $333 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $202 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $101 6d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $147 6d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 30¢ $178 6d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $202 7d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $202 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 23¢ $95 7d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $196 7d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $101 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $203 7d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $259 7d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 77¢ $201 7d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 55¢ $450 8d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $635 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.42 · official $9.42 (match) · 197 history records