Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:09:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf180…3b6c sports 169 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (1188 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$246 (+7%) realized +$439 · open −$193
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%27W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1188.0pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$542now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$702
other 8% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1188 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-58.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -53.9% -58.3% 25% 21% -41.8%
≤30d 108 -53.9% -58.3% 25% 21% -41.8%
≤90d 108 -53.9% -58.3% 25% 21% -41.8%
all 108 -53.9% -58.3% 25% 21% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1188.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.3% 21% -41.8%
10% ← realistic here -62.3% 16% -47.4%
15% -65.9% 13% -52.5%
20% -69.3% 9% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$542
Realized+$439
Unrealized−$193
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses27 / 81
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions61
Markets (closed)108 / 169
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1188.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 61 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 26¢ 66¢ $19 $48 +$29 (+154%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Cabo Verde 22¢ 50¢ $18 $40 +$22 (+122%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Under 32¢ 74¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+128%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Cabo Verde 46¢ 78¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+71%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Under 21¢ 36¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+66%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Under 65¢ 78¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Liudmila Samsonova 38¢ 48¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 65¢ 80¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Ekaterine Gorgodze 24¢ 48¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+100%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Elias Ymer 43¢ 48¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif Mayar Sherif 92¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 26¢ $25 $10 −$15 (-60%)
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Elise Mertens 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Under 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Luca Van Assche 77¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 89¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 92¢ 83¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Pierre Delage 23¢ 32¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+38%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 87¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 80¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Jun 15 $8 +$1 +14%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $18 −$10 -54%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $16 −$10 -64%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $16 −$10 -62%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $17 −$10 -60%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $16 −$10 -62%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $8 −$2 -26%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $12 −$6 -49%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $12 −$6 -48%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $14 −$6 -42%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $14 −$7 -54%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Ana Sofia Sanchez Jun 15 $15 −$5 -33%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 $0 -0%
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 15 $8 −$6 -74%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $10 −$6 -59%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $20 −$10 -49%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $14 −$4 -28%
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 15 $18 −$8 -44%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $12 −$4 -33%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva Jun 15 $10 −$2 -21%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $20 −$10 -50%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $18 −$3 -16%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $8 −$3 -32%
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $8 −$2 -20%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $12 −$2 -15%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $16 −$8 -49%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $18 −$10 -55%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $17 +$5 +29%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $10 −$5 -53%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $20 −$5 -26%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $18 −$8 -42%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $19 −$8 -43%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $14 −$3 -24%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $14 −$10 -70%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $15 −$6 -38%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $27 −$4 -15%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 +$74 +145%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $21 $0 -2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 +$2 +28%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $18 −$4 -22%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $76 −$20 -26%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $45 +$87 +195%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $60 +$36 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 83¢ $18 1m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Talia Gibson 99¢ $5 3m
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea BUY Anton Matusevich 44¢ $4 4m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $4 7m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 7m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $4 7m
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui SELL Jaime Faria 100¢ $4 7m
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 63¢ $2 9m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 94¢ $13 10m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $0 11m
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova SELL Barbora Palicova 97¢ $8 12m
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $10 12m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $24 12m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Under 13¢ $4 13m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Under 13¢ $1 13m
Spain leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $80 14m
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel SELL Thomas Faurel 94¢ $9 14m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 97¢ $12 15m
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $12 15m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Cabo Verde 91¢ $14 15m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 15m
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Svyatoslav Gulin 72¢ $4 16m
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Pierre Delage 22¢ $1 19m
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Pierre Delage 23¢ $1 19m
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Pierre Delage 23¢ $4 19m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 20m
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 87¢ $2 22m
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia SELL Nicolas Mejia 100¢ $20 23m
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 89¢ $1 25m
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 89¢ $4 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $542.36 · official $542.49 (match) · 1198 history records