Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf182…112b sports 467 markets active 0h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,742 (-7%) realized −$1,746 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%220W / 246L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$286est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$785
14 days−$740
30 days−$775
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$892
crypto 25% −$1,164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -21.7% -29.2% 35% 31% -32.5%
≤30d 87 -13.9% -22.1% 40% 37% -24.9%
≤90d 422 -11.3% -19.8% 46% 43% -20.7%
all 466 -7.4% -16.3% 47% 44% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 44% -16.9%
10% -24.3% 41% -24.9%
15% -31.6% 38% -32.1%
20% -38.3% 33% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$40 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$1,746
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses220 / 246
Est. fees paid−$286
Open positions1
Markets (closed)466 / 467
History coverage177d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 466 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Buvaysar Gadamauri 67¢ 73¢ $43 $47 +$4 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $125 −$6 -5%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $113 −$36 -32%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $68 −$67 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $80 +$66 +82%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $13 −$13 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $27 −$27 -98%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $46 −$19 -41%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $58 −$12 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$27 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$14 +79%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $59 −$41 -71%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $142 +$21 +15%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $23 +$19 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $19 +$22 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$9 +98%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $40 −$31 -76%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $38 −$37 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $106 −$55 -52%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $121 −$120 -99%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $101 −$83 -82%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 12 $32 −$32 -98%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $66 −$11 -16%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $68 +$75 +110%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $32 −$24 -73%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $21 +$10 +48%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$10 +98%
Tucuman: Maximo Zeitune vs Arklon Del Pino Jun 10 $33 −$19 -57%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $16 −$2 -13%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $69 −$68 -99%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $175 +$18 +10%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $36 +$9 +26%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $110 −$44 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $65 −$31 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $75 −$41 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $62 −$40 -64%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 09 $71 −$56 -79%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $97 +$74 +76%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 09 $66 +$31 +46%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $124 −$122 -98%
Bratislava: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Emilio Nava Jun 09 $62 −$61 -98%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $59 −$28 -48%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $90 +$71 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 09 $29 +$29 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 09 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $29 +$31 +106%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $75 −$4 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 67¢ $43 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 36m
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur SELL Damir Dzumhur 33¢ $24 37m
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 50¢ $38 43m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $38 44m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 51¢ $43 1h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery SELL Lucio Ratti 95¢ $42 1h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Lucio Ratti 75¢ $34 1h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery SELL Calvin Hemery 23¢ $34 1h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Calvin Hemery 51¢ $79 1h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Coleman Wong 47¢ $68 2h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova SELL Elise Mertens 100¢ $147 2h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Elise Mertens 54¢ $80 3h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 63¢ $81 3h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 63¢ $82 4h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 53¢ $13 6h
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova 23¢ $27 8h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 39¢ $27 8h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 64¢ $46 8h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za SELL Maria Timofeeva 48¢ $46 9h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Maria Timofeeva 59¢ $19 18h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Maria Timofeeva 59¢ $39 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $57 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $19 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $18 24h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Katarzyna Kawa 26¢ $17 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.85 · official $46.85 (match) · 1085 history records