Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:27:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf184…d472 sports 136 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$130 (+1%) realized +$179 · open −$49
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate58%66W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day69.5pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$850now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$96
sports 29% −$81
other 18% −$66
weather 4% +$25
world 1% +$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -13.6% -21.8% 58% 33% -9.3%
≤30d 114 -13.6% -21.8% 58% 33% -9.3%
≤90d 114 -13.6% -21.8% 58% 33% -9.3%
all 114 -13.6% -21.8% 58% 33% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 33% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 28% -18.0%
15% -36.1% 26% -25.9%
20% -42.4% 23% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$32 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$850
Realized+$179
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses66 / 48
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions22
Markets (closed)114 / 136
History coverage6d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day69.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 100¢ $86 $146 +$60 (+69%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 94¢ $125 $127 +$2 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $110 $112 +$3 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $89 $110 +$21 (+24%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 82¢ 90¢ $70 $77 +$7 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 22-28? No 99¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+3%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Over 58¢ 44¢ $62 $47 −$15 (-24%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 86¢ 67¢ $57 $45 −$12 (-22%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 62¢ 24¢ $67 $27 −$41 (-60%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 74¢ 90¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 25? No 88¢ 86¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 76¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-13%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 32¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-47%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? No 12¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? No 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Nito Abreu win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? No 26¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 25? Yes 32¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 15¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 60¢ $70 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $272 +$216 +79%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $28 −$27 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 24 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET Jun 24 $263 +$2 +1%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $88 −$58 -66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $502 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $7 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 24? Jun 24 $14 +$9 +63%
Fery vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET Jun 24 $283 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $162 +$2 +1%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $156 −$156 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 24 $81 −$81 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $80 −$80 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $499 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $123 +$93 +76%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $38 +$24 +62%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $20 +$18 +90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $62 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $29 +$9 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $8 $0 +4%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $20 +$17 +83%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET Jun 23 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET Jun 23 $222 +$2 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $7 +$1 +20%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $90 −$3 -3%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $71 +$48 +67%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $51 +$21 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $34 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1AM ET Jun 22 $331 +$6 +2%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 22 $50 +$38 +76%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $291 +$9 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $55 +$1 +1%
Cerundolo vs. Paul: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $53 +$44 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 25? BUY No 88¢ $7 1m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 25? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $63 33m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 50m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $6 51m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 51m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $34 51m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 51m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $4 51m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 52m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 52m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $15 52m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $14 53m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $4 53m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $35 53m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 82¢ $70 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $35 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $70 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $68 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 65¢ $9 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $28 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 74¢ $12 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 6h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $272 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $47 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $55 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $38 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $850.41 · official $850.42 (match) · 553 history records