Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:07:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf186…03a9 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$118 (+6%) realized +$134 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days−$115
14 days−$185
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$113
other 2% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +9.6% -0.8% 50% 50% -20.7%
≤30d 30 +18.4% +7.1% 50% 43% -4.6%
≤90d 30 +18.4% +7.1% 50% 43% -4.6%
all 30 +18.4% +7.1% 50% 43% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 43% -4.6%
10% -3.1% 40% -13.7%
15% -12.5% 30% -22.1%
20% -21.1% 23% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$42 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$134
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage25d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aurora make a roster change before July? Yes 36¢ 19¢ $33 $18 −$16 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $3 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $46 +$17 +37%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $70 +$20 +29%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $256 −$7 -3%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $40 +$13 +32%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $51 +$44 +86%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $248 −$49 -20%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $121 −$71 -59%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $8 +$8 +97%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $91 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 07 $244 −$50 -20%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$185 +183%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Lilmix - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $10 −$9 -92%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $45 +$4 +8%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 05 $161 +$15 +10%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $10 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S Jun 04 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe S May 31 $83 −$82 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs DragonClaw (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh May 31 $25 +$35 +141%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se May 31 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Subtop De France vs Arch - Map 2 Winner May 30 $51 +$326 +636%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage May 28 $51 −$9 -18%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC - Map 1 Winner May 28 $51 +$48 +95%
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Challen May 28 $10 +$13 +126%
Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs Lilmix (BO3) - European Pro League Ser May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TNC vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham May 27 $20 +$9 +46%
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs Bushido Wildcats - Map 1 Winner May 27 $16 −$6 -37%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs TNC (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh May 26 $20 +$6 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner SELL Clutchain 59¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner BUY Clutchain 60¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B SELL Clutchain 67¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B SELL Clutchain 67¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B SELL Clutchain 69¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B SELL Clutchain 71¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 47¢ $22 2h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 49¢ $23 2h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner SELL eSuba 100¢ $91 27h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A SELL eSuba 100¢ $161 27h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner SELL eSuba 100¢ $53 28h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner BUY eSuba 79¢ $20 28h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner BUY eSuba 72¢ $20 28h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 83¢ $23 28h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 82¢ $2 28h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 81¢ $22 28h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 82¢ $32 28h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 81¢ $30 28h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 85¢ $23 28h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 84¢ $1 28h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner BUY eSuba 85¢ $10 28h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner BUY eSuba 81¢ $30 28h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner BUY eSuba 81¢ $10 28h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner BUY eSuba 68¢ $10 28h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner BUY eSuba 66¢ $10 28h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A SELL Coalesce 24¢ $88 28h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY Coalesce 23¢ $10 29h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY Coalesce 22¢ $10 29h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY Coalesce 34¢ $102 29h
Will Aurora make a roster change before July? BUY Yes 36¢ $34 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.61 · official $17.61 (match) · 104 history records